Quarterly Journal of West Asia Political Research

Abstract The present study, focusing on examining the evolution of the performance of the Turkish government between 2006 and 2024, using the theoretical framework of fragile states and the structural analysis method, seeks to answer the main question: How can the current and future situation of the Turkish government be explained based on government fragility indicators? The data required for the study were collected from the Peace Fund Institute, which monitors and publishes the "State Fragility Index". To assess the relationships between variables, the "MICMAC" method and specialized software version 6.1.2 were used. Also, the evaluation of the structural analysis matrices was carried out based on the opinion and consensus of a panel of experts in the field of Turkey and related specialists so that expert judgments could be the basis for the analysis. The findings of the study show that three key variables; "Elite divergence", "foreign intervention" and "human rights" are among the main drivers of this process and, by influencing five vital variables; "state legitimacy", "security apparatus", "public services", "unbalanced economy" and "poverty and economic decline", they form a set of causal and disabling relationships that result in reinforcing and destructive feedbacks that have led to the weakening of governance capacities and the intensification of structural vulnerabilities in Turkey and, ultimately, have brought consequences such as brain drain, structural inflation, reduction of social capital and weakening of the country's international position. Therefore, the result of this process shows that Turkey is moving towards state fragility.

Abstract Since its establishment, Israel has constantly seen itself under threat and has prepared itself for any battle. In its military record, this regime has experienced six major wars with the Arabs, two wars with Iran, and numerous wars with paramilitary groups such as the PLO, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Ansar Allah. The main question of the research is what changes have Israel's military strategies undergone before and after October 7th, 2023? The hypothesis tested in the research is that Israel has made its military strategy more aggressive and based on preemptive war. The library-documentary method was used to answer the research question. The research findings show that Israel, which used strategies such as preventive war, transferring the war to enemy territory, early warning, deterrence, short-term wars, and surprise attack in its wars; After the October 7, 2023 war (Operation Al-Aqsa Storm), it has changed its military strategy and has resorted to cyber deterrence, the Dahiya doctrine, preemptive warfare, and a more grassroots strategy. The essence of the new strategy is based on the gradual destruction of the militant groups opposing Israel (by assassinating their commanders and leaders and disintegrating their organizational structure and internal discipline) and the destruction of the urban, civil, and economic infrastructures where they live (to prevent their growth and proliferation and prevent their continued existence).