This study examines the evolution of state fragility in Turkey between 2006 and 2024 by drawing on the theoretical framework of fragile states and employing structural analysis. It addresses the following central question: How can Turkey’s current and prospective condition be explained through the indicators of state fragility? The data were obtained from the Fragile States Index (FSI) compiled and published by the Fund for Peace. To examine the structural relationships among the relevant variables, the study employs the MICMAC method and specialized MICMAC software, version 6.1.2. The structural impact matrices were evaluated on the basis of the judgments and consensus of an expert panel comprising specialists in Turkish studies and related fields, thereby incorporating expert assessment into the analysis.
The findings indicate that three key variables—Factionalized Elites, External Intervention, and Human Rights—constitute the principal driving forces within Turkey’s fragility system. Through their effects on five linkage variables—State Legitimacy, Security Apparatus, Public Services, Uneven Development, and Economic Decline—they generate a complex set of causal relationships. These interactions produce reinforcing feedback loops that erode governance capacity and intensify Turkey’s structural vulnerabilities. The resulting dynamics are associated with outcomes including brain drain, persistent inflationary pressures, declining social capital, and a weakening of Turkey’s international position. Overall, the findings suggest that Turkey has been moving toward a condition of increasing state fragility, characterized not by the immediate collapse of state institutions but by the cumulative erosion of their resilience and governing capacity